Study examines contagion to suicide after celebrity deaths, opening up possibilities for prevention

New research shows the rapid and widespread spread of suicidal behavior following the suicides of Robin Williams in 2014 and Kate Spade and Anthony Bourdain, which occurred three days apart in 2018.

Researchers at Columbia University developed a computer model to examine the dynamics underlying suicide contagion. They found that both the 2014 and 2018 events led to large increases in suicidal thoughts and behavior. findingsthat appear in the magazine Scientific progressprovide a framework for quantifying suicide contagion to better understand, prevent and contain its spread.

“The model we developed shows how suicide contagion, including suicidal ideation and death, spreads rapidly after celebrities commit suicide, whose lives and work are well-known and likely meaningful to a large segment of the population,” said study co-author Jeffrey Shaman, Ph.D., interim dean of the Columbia Climate School and professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health.

Shaman is known for developing models of influenza and SARS-CoV-2. The Columbia researchers’ model of suicide contagion has a structure similar to models of other infectious systems, including the number of people who can transmit the contagion and the number of people susceptible to “infection.”

There is no single factor that causes suicide or suicidal ideation. However, a proportion of suicidal ideation has long been attributed to social or infectious processes. Proximity or familiarity with people who have planned, attempted, or died from suicide may trigger suicidal thoughts or attempts in susceptible individuals.

According to the CDCSuicide rates rose 37% between 2000 and 2018 and fell 5% between 2018 and 2020, before peaking again in 2021.

The Columbia suicide contagion model uses two data sources. First, the total number of weekly calls to the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline, currently known as the 988 Suicide and Crisis Lifeline (988 Lifeline), was used as an estimate of suicidal ideation (988 Lifeline is a network of over 200 24-hour crisis call centers that provide confidential mental health crisis and counseling services across the country).

The second source comes from mortality rates in the National Vital Statistics System, maintained by the National Center for Health Statistics.

The model estimates that there was a significant increase in the suicide contagion rate after the 2014 suicide. The likelihood that someone would commit suicide after hearing about Williams’ death increased by a factor of 1,000.

The result was a marked increase in suicidal ideation, which was reflected in a spike in calls to 988 Lifeline. The 2018 case is similar, although the magnitude of the suicide infection rate was about half that following the news of Spade and Bourdain’s suicides.

Among the two celebrities who committed suicide, the number of excess suicide deaths was about double after the 2014 Williams event, possibly reflecting differences in communication and media attention after each event and the level of public connection to the deceased. In both the 2014 and 2018 simulations, the elevated infection rates lasted about two weeks before returning to baseline levels.

Ultimately, with further research, researchers say the model could provide real-time estimates of suicide contagion and risk. Such estimates would require that the number of calls to 988 Lifeline and NVSS suicide deaths be available in real time; currently, they are not. Additionally, further research is needed to develop alternative models, including those that simulate responses within specific communities and those that take into account media and public health education efforts.

“Our ultimate goal is to work toward a point where a suicide contagion model can lead to a rapid response aimed at preventing suicide,” said Katherine Keyes, Ph.D., a co-author of the paper, professor of epidemiology and director of SPIRT, a new Columbia initiative aimed at fostering public health research collaborations to better understand the mental health crisis and identify solutions.